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Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Notes on historical cycles

Current cycle (1946-present):

Post-war high (1946-1966)
- Peace and prosperity resonate ("middle class paradise")
- GIs and Silents benefit a great deal from this era (longest lived generations)
- Individualism is low and cultural stability is high (low rates of crime, mental illness, and drug use)

Civil Rights and New Age awakening (1967-1981)
- Silents and esp. Boomers attack the cultural conformity and aspiritual nature of the Post-war high.
- Individual rights and creativity surge, but so does crime, violence, sex, and ill-tempered passion.
- "counter-cultural" ideas and movements surge in popularity, which causes a rapidly shifting sense of what's acceptable and what isn't. Unusual or revived from the past forms of religion, sexual behavior, and personal expression bemuse GI Generation adults, tantalize Silents, and excite Boomers.....But they also unsettle young Gen X-ers.

Junk Culture and Neo-liberal unraveling (1982-2000)
- Silents and Boomers began to regret the excesses of the awakening, and also began to point their fingers at whoever is deemed to be responsible for the crumbling of morality
- Crime, drugs, and promiscuity are attacked with moralistic fervor, as older adults criticize Gen X youth for their flippant and nihilistic culture of "death". Sanguine city streets, nightclubs, and gambling dens are called home by wayward aging Boomers and street-wise young X-ers. Simultaneously, all generations become committed to a "family friendly" restoration of the church and the home, to protect Millennials from the shattering upbringing experienced by awakening era Gen X kids.
- Economic and political corruption rapidly grows, creating a growing division between the haves and have-nots, and making the public increasingly cynical about the integrity of the system.

Post September 11 Crisis (2001-Present)
- Behavior among all generations improves greatly (after the awakening and unraveling produced over 30 years of reduced self-control), with spirited Millennials leading the way as they demonstrate far lower rates of violence, drug use, and sex than Gen X-ers.
- Individualism, which soared from the beginning of the awakening to the last gasp of the unraveling, finally begins to decline.
- It becomes apparent that society must exert great effort to pass successfully through the current crisis; in the unraveling, many people looked for excuses to not "get involved.
- Outbreaks of team oriented violence and unrest become more common, after being nearly unheard of in the 1980's and 1990's.
- Sustained moods of large-scale hostility between different economic classes, regional groups, and ethnic groups become more likely, both within the nation and between different nations
- Great changes will be made to society and culture that render it practically alien to what it once was during the unraveling.

Notes on generations: Gen X

Type: Nomad/Reactive
Birth years: approx. 1965-1981
Youth (1-17): Civil Rights and New Age awakening of 1967-1981
Parenting received: set loose by self-indulgent adults
Parental attachment: none

Path to maturity (18-39): Junk culture and neo-liberal unravelling of 1982-2000
Lifestyle: "Street" culture, becoming tough and self-reliant
Reputation: Alienated, nihilistic, dangerous

Middle Age (40-59): Post-September 11 crisis (2001-present)
Lifestyle: Big winners and big losers, absorbing the many duties and stresses of caretaking during a crisis period
Reputation: Resilient, pragmatic, under-rated

Elder leadership (60-79): ?

Withdrawal (80+):?

Parenting style:
Suffocatingly protective, vigilant


Notes on generations: Boomer

Type: Missionary/Idealist
Birth years: approx. 1946-1964
Youth (1-17): Mid-twentieth century high of 1946-1966
Parenting received: Encouraged by confident adults
Parental attachment: Wise mother

Path to maturity (18-39): Civil Rights and New Age awakening of 1967-1981
Lifestyle: Hedonism, protests, riots, quarrels, and dreams and "visions" of cultural and spiritual purification
Reputation: Volatile, brash

Middle Age (40-59): Junk culture and neo-liberal unravelling of 1982-2000
Lifestyle: Materialism, moralistic lecturing, injecting and debating religion in the public sphere, crusading to protect children
Reputation: Judgemental, severe, conscientious

Elder leadership (60-79): post September 11 crisis (2001-present)
Lifestyle: Guiding us through urgent matters of foreign policy, politics, and economics.
Reputation: Uncompromising focus on results and accountability

Withdrawal (80+):?

Parenting style:
Demanding, hands on(kids must be guided)

Clinton (1993-2000)-Trump (2017-)

Monday, November 19, 2018

Notes on generations: Silent

Type: Artist/Adaptive
Birth years: approx. 1925-1945
Youth (1-17): Crisis of the 1930's Depression, World War 2 (1930-1945)
Parenting received: Sheltered by fearful adults
Parental attachment: both parents for their unconditional love

Path to maturity (18-39): Mid-twentieth century high of 1946-1966
Lifestyle: Studying, socializing, becoming the expert understudies of GIs
Reputation: Conformist, cautious, unhappy

Middle Age (40-59): Civil Rights and New Age awakening of 1967-1981
Lifestyle: Experimentation ("mid-life crisis"), mediating between passionate Boomers and stoic GIs, witty leaders and observers of emerging political and cultural movements
Reputation: Insecure, underappreciated

Elder leadership (60-79):Junk culture and neo-liberal unravelling of 1982-2000
Lifestyle: Caught in "no man's land" (still not recognized as GIs who are now fading, or Boomers who are now commanding the spotlight more than ever). Lamenting their inability to live up to the GIs powerful reputation, while also lacking the fervor of righteous Boomers.
Reputation: Faltering

Withdrawal (80+): post September 11 crisis (2001-present)
Lifestyle: family and community oriented, with no great professional obligations left. Still looking for another shot at excitement and fulfillment (lots of "adventures" still left to pursue).
Reputation: Respected

Parenting style:
"Free range" (let kids find their way)

No presidents

Notes on Generations - GI

Type: Hero/Civic
Birth years: approx. 1900-1924
Youth (1-17): Early 20th century unraveling of 1908-1929
Parenting received: protected by moralistic adults
Parental attachment: strong fathers

Path to maturity (18-39): Crisis of the 1930's Depression, World War 2 (1930-1945)
Lifestyle: accomplishing great things as team in a time of great need
Reputation: brave and virtuous

Middle Age (40-59): Mid-twentieth century high of 1946-1966
Lifestyle: building ambitious and powerful institutions as a team, enjoying their power
Reputation: confident and energetic

Elder leadership (60-79): Civil Rights and New Age awakening of 1967-1981
Lifestyle: defending their institutions from the attacks of younger generations
Reputation: powerful to a hubristic fault

Withdrawal (80+): Junk culture and neo-liberal unravelling of 1982-2000
Lifestyle: graceful passage into retirement from politics and culture.
Reputation: beloved 

Parenting style:
Encouraging creativity and independent thinking

First president: JFK (1961-1963)
Last President: George HW Bush (1989-1992)

Sunday, November 18, 2018

High Ed follow-up

The 2004-2016 stats show that over 30% of white guys now report getting a Bachelor's or Graduate degree.

Prior to 1984, in no year did more than 20% of whites report having a degree. 30 years after 1984, are white guys 10% smarter than they used to be? Of course not.

According to Murray and Hernstein, around 25% of the US population has an IQ over 110. This suggest that a fair number of smarties did not reach for credentials prior to the mid-80's, perhaps because they felt as if they could make a comfortable living without the hassle of spending years in college. On the other hand, the steep rise in degree attainment after the mid-80's suggests a lot of people who are slightly above average intellectually are now attempting to stay "competitive" with people who are well, just plain smarter.

And mind you, this picture gets even more grim when you factor into the massive rise of women credentialism seen since the 80's. Women are far less likely then men to have IQs well above 110.

High Ed inflation

Amusingly, the more educated Americans get the worse off we seem to be. In the modest 1950's-1970's, college was intended for the cognitive elite, who by default will never exceed more than a certain percentage of the population (WRT ethnic differences, in say Japan, people with an IQ of 105 usually won't be able to compete with the mental heavy hitters in their ethnic group, so you might as well relax and accept a career as a line-worker at Honda, rather than waste your time and money at building credentials in a (futile) attempt to compete with engineers, doctors, and lawyers. In a time of low status anxiety and quality leadership, everyone seems to understand this.

College ought to be reserved for those whose elite status comes easy (via high intelligence), rather than be a daycare for poor kids with middling IQs who were told that not going to college makes you a loser.  In point of fact, occupations which used to pay lower class (lower IQ) people well either no longer exist in this country (off-shoring, or foreigners doing this work on our shores), or pay such miserable wages that people feel as if they must try and go to college to "earn" a degree to enable them access to a better job. Said degrees are now effectively worthless for much of the population because they are now given out so indiscriminately, and by default things that are more common must lower in value.

The hard truth of the "service economy" is that jobs for low and average IQ people are now non-existent or have terrible wages, while more elite level IQ people have the smarts and social skills to make a living in occupations insulated from dumber people and/or foreign competition (such as Law and the Media). Lots of hapless lower IQ people are being given worthless diplomas for their futile attempt to compete with the cognitive elite, whose inherent advantages will never diminish, no matter how hard we try and promote STEM education for the intellectual lower and middle class.

GSS Variables: DEGREE, RACE(1), SEX(1)