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Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Notes on historical cycles

Current cycle (1946-present):

Post-war high (1946-1966)
- Peace and prosperity resonate ("middle class paradise")
- GIs and Silents benefit a great deal from this era (longest lived generations)
- Individualism is low and cultural stability is high (low rates of crime, mental illness, and drug use)

Civil Rights and New Age awakening (1967-1981)
- Silents and esp. Boomers attack the cultural conformity and aspiritual nature of the Post-war high.
- Individual rights and creativity surge, but so does crime, violence, sex, and ill-tempered passion.
- "counter-cultural" ideas and movements surge in popularity, which causes a rapidly shifting sense of what's acceptable and what isn't. Unusual or revived from the past forms of religion, sexual behavior, and personal expression bemuse GI Generation adults, tantalize Silents, and excite Boomers.....But they also unsettle young Gen X-ers.

Junk Culture and Neo-liberal unraveling (1982-2000)
- Silents and Boomers began to regret the excesses of the awakening, and also began to point their fingers at whoever is deemed to be responsible for the crumbling of morality
- Crime, drugs, and promiscuity are attacked with moralistic fervor, as older adults criticize Gen X youth for their flippant and nihilistic culture of "death". Sanguine city streets, nightclubs, and gambling dens are called home by wayward aging Boomers and street-wise young X-ers. Simultaneously, all generations become committed to a "family friendly" restoration of the church and the home, to protect Millennials from the shattering upbringing experienced by awakening era Gen X kids.
- Economic and political corruption rapidly grows, creating a growing division between the haves and have-nots, and making the public increasingly cynical about the integrity of the system.

Post September 11 Crisis (2001-Present)
- Behavior among all generations improves greatly (after the awakening and unraveling produced over 30 years of reduced self-control), with spirited Millennials leading the way as they demonstrate far lower rates of violence, drug use, and sex than Gen X-ers.
- Individualism, which soared from the beginning of the awakening to the last gasp of the unraveling, finally begins to decline.
- It becomes apparent that society must exert great effort to pass successfully through the current crisis; in the unraveling, many people looked for excuses to not "get involved.
- Outbreaks of team oriented violence and unrest become more common, after being nearly unheard of in the 1980's and 1990's.
- Sustained moods of large-scale hostility between different economic classes, regional groups, and ethnic groups become more likely, both within the nation and between different nations
- Great changes will be made to society and culture that render it practically alien to what it once was during the unraveling.

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